Friday, July 3, 2015

“Oscar” is not another term for “MD”

Brand contamination is the curse of marketers. Where one’s brand becomes associated with just what you don’t want it to be – think palm oil and Cadbury or Nestle and bad recipe milo – is not what you want.

Unsolicited promotion of personal obsessions and factually flawed junk logic such as anti vaccine stances is a form of what we might term “reverse brand contamination”.

We should check facts before bowing to our love of celebrity by  confusing their entertainment skills with sound medical advice.

David Farrar is apposite on this:

Carrey, Kerr and Clement are experts in acting. If you want to learn how to be a better actor, you should listen to them.

However taking the advice of celebrity actors on whether you should vaccinate your children is stupid and dangerous - it's like getting medical advice from some bloke in a pub.

Even some of us musicians have learned the hard way that you don’t have to cut your wrists to play the blues…. many tragic but brilliant blues players notwithstanding.

Just how easy it is to get facts wrong is perhaps underlined by the fact that the Herald managed to spell Jim Carrey’s name wrongly twice within a paragraph on this subject.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Brother can you spare a lazy $29 billion

It seems that any truth passes through three phases: ridicule, violent opposition and finally it appears self evident. Greece would appear to be on the doorstep of phase III. All believers in free (or stolen) lunches should watch with interest.

Sunday, June 14, 2015

And you seriously expect me to believe in regulation….? A grand scale freak show for the dysfunctional

The Federal Marching Band
Of Music Regulators

by Brian T. Majeski

Editor, The Music Trades (Wall Street Journal)

FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY, the music industry escaped the gaze of government agencies thanks to its small scale--$6.8 billion now in the U.S.--and its wholesome, noncontroversial products. Few things seem less deserving of federal regulation than a 5th grader with an oboe. On the rare occasions in history when prominent officials took notice, the magazine I edit, The Music Trades, ran celebratory headlines: "President Taft At Baldwin Piano Plant Opening," or "Clinton Says Playing Music Made Me President."
   Over the past seven years, however, the tenor of the government's interest in the music business has changed. Our magazine now regularly carries accounts of punitive fines, armed raids and threats of jail time.

Image by David Gothard      

   In 2007 the Federal Trade Commission launched a broad and far-fetched price-fixing investigation against instrument and equipment manufacturers. Far-fetched because it is difficult to imagine how makers of such disparate products--microphones, guitars, drums and keyboards--could fix prices. It took two years for the FTC to realize that it had no case, but only after threatening fines, conducting depositions and commandeering terabytes of corporate records.
   No wrongdoing was uncovered, but in a consent decree with the National Association of Music Merchants, the FTC mandated that a lengthy legal document be read at all industry gatherings, essentially exhorting attendees not to collude. The association was also compelled to hire a compliance officer tasked with monitoring the 90,000-plus attendees at its annual trade show for any "anticompetitive" behaviour. The estimated costs of this investigation to the industry: $15 million.
   The exoneration didn't end the ordeal. More than 30 trial lawyers seized on the consent decree as a tacit admission of guilt and filed class-action suits seeking hundreds of millions in damages--from NAMM and such companies as Guitar Center, Fender and Yamaha--on behalf of consumers who were allegedly overcharged. Most suits have been dismissed, but some remain unresolved. Cost to the industry: more than $5 million.
   In March 2013 the FTC then turned its sights on the Music Teachers National Association, a 139-year old organization comprised primarily of women who give piano lessons in their homes. The group's code of ethics, which discouraged members from poaching one another's students, was deemed a restraint of trade. The association got off without a fine but had to abandon its code of ethics, train members about "anticompetitive practices," draft a 20-year compliance plan, and file annual updates with the FTC.
   In 2009 armed FBI agents burst into the Gibson Guitar plant in Nashville, Tenn., seizing pallets of ebony and rosewood. Two years later, agents staged an encore at the Gibson plant in Memphis. Employees were threatened and production was disrupted, but no charges were filed. After three years in limbo, Gibson settled with the Justice Department, paying a $300,000 fine and forfeiting $261,000 of ebony. (The rosewood, a farmed species that has been exported in volume for decades, was returned.)
   The justification for the raids was a far from clear-cut violation of a 2008 amendment to the Lacey Act, a vaguely worded statute requiring extensive documentation on all imported wood. Gibson's legal costs for what was at worst a paperwork violation: $2.4 million. Management settled only because the cost of continuing to fight was too high.
   Last year Gold Tone Banjo was fined $110,000 by the Fish and Wildlife Service over a few bits of oyster shell. Gold Tone failed to properly fill out "e-Doc" customs declarations for the material, which was to be used for fingerboard inlays. These aren't endangered species, but farmed oysters like on menus everywhere. Federal officials initially asked for a $370,000 fine and a six month jail term for the owners, backing off only after weeks of negotiation.
   Then there's the Federal Communications Commission, which evaluates electronic devices to ensure that they don't emit radio waves that interfere with broadcast signals, wireless communication or other electronic devices. Recently, the FCC has used this authority to extract fines for technicalities: $50,000 for displaying a pre-production prototype of an audio effects processor on a website before it was FCC approved; $25,000 for placing the FCC labelling on the wrong side of the package of a digital mixer; and an inexplicable $425,000 fine for a guitar effects pedal that included a chip--the same kind found in virtually every smartphone--that it claimed was not compliant. The fines are a matter of public record, though, on advice of counsel, manufacturers decline to publicly discuss details. They know public criticism of the FCC could result in retribution when future products are submitted for approval.
   Proposition 65, a California statute covering potential carcinogens, has forced the industry to defend the legality of guitar strings because a nickel alloy that has been used for decades contains trace elements of lead. Bans on ivory cause hassle for musicians traveling to the U.S. because 50-year-old violins and guitars contain a few grams of the stuff. For instance, customs officials in New York last year detained seven bows from the string section of the Budapest Symphony Orchestra, levying a $525 fine for lack of paperwork.
   The fines and legal fees associated with these investigations have topped $35 million, a pittance in Washington, D.C., but a significant sum for a small, low-margin industry. In addition, they divert time from management and have depressed industry spirits, as many wonder what's next. It isn't coincidental that this increased attention from the feds has been accompanied by a period of stagnant industry growth. If the sprawling federal bureaucracy has sapped the vitality of the little music industry, is it having a similar effect on the rest of the economy?

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Business jargon pomposity update….

A few new offerings I hear being touted around by the business twaterati:

1. in the swim lane

2. bleeding edge

3. take offline

The following perennial offenders are proving hard to get rid of….At least the following

  1. revert
  2. going forward
  3. push back
  4. deep dive
  5. learnings

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Getting it wrong time after time… but people keep believing

Image result for rat smells cheese

You could be forgiven for wondering at the success rate of failure… even in recent times – Nostradamus, Malthus, and most recently Ehrlich. Spectacularly wrong in their predictions. Ditto for various events – the end of the world has been predicted numerous times and lesser catastrophes – even ones sounding scientifically plausible have suffered the same fate (Y2K, annihilation by SARS etc.)…. and yet we seem to want more, journalists believe these are “stories” as representing balanced journalism worthy of reporting. The journalists at least have the defence that such stories may generate cash for some one.

Why the persistent failed predictions? Perhaps easy enough to understand but why the appetite for more and the persistent credibility lent to failed efforts. The current outstanding example concerns the vast army of doomsday oil forecasters and perhaps offers a clue.

Simple failure to understand how demand and supply operates. The red haze of “hate an oilman and become a saint, strike a blow against capitalism and redeem your soul” seems to descend and blind the otherwise perfectly intelligent.

Levitt and Dubner explain it as well as any at the moment and here I build from that. People respond to incentives (often unconsciously, even against their will but they do). If the price or cost to them (another version of price) of a good or service goes up, they will consume less of it. Notice their demand (the inner intrinsic desire to have the good or service) doesn't change….they still want it. Just less of it at the new price. So when the price of oil goes up people still want it – they just want less of it at a high price.

The real kicker though is that there is an incentive, a stimulus, a reward, a reason – an incentive to figure out how to get the price down. To innovate, to discover, to explore to find out how to do things in a smart enough way to get the price down. That is exactly what has happened with oil and numerous other things.

Perhaps the reason people find it so hard to accept that there will be adaptation (people drive that SUV a little less, make their kids walk a little more, buy an electric not an oil heater, use heat pumps not oil burning central heating) and innovation (horizontal drilling, quicker oil test validation technologies, lower cost environmental controls, higher quality environmental costs at same or lower costs) is that, by definition, you can’t see it beforehand.

When Malthus predicted universe ending starvation he could not foresee the agricultural let alone the industrial revolution. Could I do better? Of course not. Could anyone? Of course not. Could any politician? Even less likely.

What we can see though is the thousands of years of evidence that people will respond to incentives and innovate to get what they want in as great a quantity as they can. A better life just happens to be one of those things. The rat smells the cheese every time – and that particular piece of cheese is insufferably aromatic.

Monday, May 11, 2015

Not always what is heard…

Countries with higher minimum wage than NZ are Slovenia, France, Chile, Turkey and Colombia – the other 22 have lower rates.

Saturday, May 9, 2015

A couple of lessons from the UK election

It strikes me that, quite regardless of one’s political views, we might usefully note that:

  1. Revealed preferences – how people act NOT how they say they will act or indeed pretty much anything at all they say, is what counts. It’s econ 101 but we keep listening to words not looking at actions; and,
  2. The great importance of democracy (in all its imperfect forms) is that it brings us to our senses by delivering outcomes no pollster or media stream or even social media stream can. Back to point 1. Democracy has the best (not perfect) chance of delivering not deluding.

This is far from the first recent election where measuring what people say or thought they should say proved to be wasted and totally misleading effort.