tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-68471715043042349642024-03-20T01:23:02.667+13:00Eye2theLongRunBeyond first appearances.....
Brent WheelerEye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-30724057288330725092021-09-08T18:49:00.006+12:002021-09-08T18:49:38.089+12:00Reliable forecasts versus speculative opinion....<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> The apparently trivial here has a high degree of reliability and is, in a genuine rather than business jargon use of the term, robust - retains its truth across a wide variety of settings:</span></p><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"></span></span></p><blockquote><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">"I
very frequently get the question: “What’s going to change in the next 10
years?” That’s a very interesting question. </span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">I almost never get the question: “What’s
not going to change in the next 10 years?” And I submit to you that that second
question is actually the more important of the two. </span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">You can build a business strategy around
the things that are stable in time. In our retail business, we know that
customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from
now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to
imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, “Jeff I
love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher.” Or, “I love Amazon,
I just wish you’d deliver a little slower.” Impossible. </span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">So we know the energy we put into these
things today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from
now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term,
you can afford to put a lot of energy into it." </span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">— Jeff Bezos </span></span></p></blockquote><p style="background: white; line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"></span></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-36093686087280374962021-08-23T08:08:00.002+12:002021-08-23T08:08:23.561+12:00No mandate to dictate to others...<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">"Y</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">ou have no responsibility to live up to what other people think you ought to accomplish. </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">I have no responsibility to be like they expect me to be.</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> It's their mistake, not my failing." Richard Feynman</span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-17022362598628548802021-08-16T15:30:00.005+12:002021-08-16T15:30:45.916+12:00Worth a thought<p> </p><p style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 150%;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">"Asking
for feedback creates a critic. Asking for advice creates a partner." from Farnham Street.</span></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-60481933165855875472021-08-14T18:35:00.000+12:002021-08-14T18:35:40.444+12:00Neither Guilt Nor Apocalypse are Sound Policy Instruments<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Bjorn Lomborg reports in Business
Day that the latest IPCC report – the “code red” document states that “frequency
and intensity of cold extremes has decreased.” Just what we might expect. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The Lancet reports that half a
million die <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>from heat every year. At the
same time 4.5 million people die from cold. The last 10 years have seen,
globally, an increase of 116,000 deaths from heat but a decrease of 283,000
deaths from cold. We have then seen 167,000 lives saved per year<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This is neither apocalypse nor
anything to be guilty about. Code red? Code for – look at both benefits and
costs. You might be surprised.</span><o:p></o:p></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-12726660407777636682021-07-26T08:21:00.002+12:002021-07-26T08:21:54.131+12:00A Critical Distinction<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: #333333;">But what does it mean to believe in science? The British science writer Matt Ridley draws a pointed distinction between “science as a philosophy” and “science as an institution.” The former grows out of the Enlightenment, which Mr. Ridley defines as “the primacy of rational and objective reasoning.” </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: #333333;">The latter, like all human institutions, is erratic, prone to falling well short of its stated principles. Mr. Ridley says the Covid pandemic has “thrown into sharp relief the disconnect between science as a philosophy and science as an institution.”</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: #333333;">Wall St Journal 23 July (remainder pay walled)</span></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-42460817490845403882021-07-24T18:40:00.001+12:002021-07-24T18:41:48.380+12:00The Stench of Regulator Envy<div class="WordSection1"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 9pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: 9.0pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #404441; font-family: helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.05pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">New Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rules say astronaut hopefuls must be part of the flight crew and make contributions to space flight safety. That means Jeff Bezos and Sir Richard Branson may not yet be astronauts in the eyes of the US government.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 9pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: 9.0pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #404441; font-family: helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.05pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">These are the first changes since the FAA wings programme began in 2004.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #404441; font-family: helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.05pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">The Commercial Astronaut Wings programme updates were announced on Tuesday - the same day that <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/447318/road-to-space-billionaire-jeff-bezos-has-successful-suborbital-jaunt"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #d24141; padding: 0cm;">Amazon's Bezos flew aboard a Blue Origin rocket to the edge of space.</span></a> To qualify as commercial astronauts, space-goers must travel 80km above the Earth's surface, which both Bezos and Branson accomplished.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 9pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: 9.0pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #404441; font-family: helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.05pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">But altitude aside, the agency said that would-be astronauts must have also "demonstrated activities during flight that were essential to public safety, or contributed to human space flight safety".<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 9pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; mso-margin-top-alt: 9.0pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #404441; letter-spacing: 0.05pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">What exactly counts as such is determined by FAA officials.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> </div> Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-576051045660326222021-07-21T18:32:00.001+12:002021-07-21T18:34:04.536+12:00Two thoughts worth considering<div class="WordSection1"> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060; font-weight: normal;">Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.</span></strong><strong><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060;"> </span></strong><em><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060;">Plato, ancient Greek Philosopher</span></em><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-AU"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong><span face=""Calibri",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060; font-weight: normal;">Politicians are people who, when they see light at the end of the tunnel, go out and buy some more tunnel</span></strong><strong><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060;">.</span></strong><em><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-GB" style="color: #002060;"> John Quinton, American actor/writer</span></em></span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" lang="EN-AU" style="font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> </div> Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-38539084485591090442021-07-19T11:14:00.001+12:002021-07-19T11:16:43.433+12:00Biden Turns Back the Progressive Clock<div class="WordSection1"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 21pt; vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""Helvetica",sans-serif" style="font-size: 15pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Without the deregulation of the ’70s—which he supported—the economy would be smaller today.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">By </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ; padding: 0cm;">Phil Gramm</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;"> and </span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ; padding: 0cm;">Mike Solon</span><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">July 14, 2021 <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="vertical-align: baseline;"><span face=""Helvetica",sans-serif" style="color: #222222; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">In a sweeping executive order aimed at reimposing Progressive Era regulatory policy across the U.S. economy, President Biden recounted the foundational myths of modern progressivism. The first canon of progressivism holds that breaking up the consolidating industries or trusts in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and regulating those industries heavily until the late 1970s, benefited the economy and gave “the little guy” a fighting chance. Consumers, workers and the economy took a hit, according to the progressive myth, when the regulatory structure was overturned 40 years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Progressive interpretation claims that the industrial concentration of the late 19th and early 20th centuries was evidence of the rise of monopolies, but if the consolidating industries were exhibiting anticompetitive behavior, output would have fallen and prices would have risen. The opposite happened. As economist Thomas DiLorenzo showed in a classic study, output in industries accused of being monopolistic during the debate on the Sherman Act in 1890 increased by 175% from 1880 to 1890—seven times the growth rate of the economy as a whole. The average price of products sold by these same industries fell three times as fast as the Consumer Price Index.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Hard economic data consistently shows that the industrial concentration at the turn of the 19th century was driven by vigorous competition arising from transformative technology and improved industrial organization. Efficient producers mastered the economies of scale to provide consumers with lower prices and improved product quality. Competition and new technology destroyed the pricing power of emerging trusts, and most failed to survive. Even the oil and sugar trusts, which existed because of protective tariffs, faced relentless price competition.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Many trusts welcomed progressive regulation. A comprehensive study by economist George Hilton and historian Gabriel Kolko showed convincingly that railroads championed regulation. They were more than happy to have the feds set freight rates. Market forces had driven down revenues per ton-mile by some 18% between 1870 and 1890. The first major action of the Interstate Commerce Commission was to ban price competition by outlawing price rebating, which the owners of an overbuilt railway system welcomed. When interstate trucking became an effective competitor of the railroads, the ICC muted that competition by regulating the new industry.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">The 1970s brought two recessions, double-digit inflation and an end to America’s postwar economic dominance, setting off an intense policy debate. As economists, regulators, politicians, business leaders and policy advocates debated why the U.S. economy seemed to be losing its exceptionalism, a consensus formed around the belief that regulations based on the Progressive Era principles that Mr. Biden now seeks to revive were hurting consumers, workers and the economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Experts charged with protecting consumers, like then-Senate Judiciary Committee staffer (and Harvard antitrust law professor) Stephen Breyer and Civil Aeronautics Board Chairman Alfred Kahn, provided the hard evidence that convinced their bosses, Sen. Ted Kennedy and President Jimmy Carter, that America needed to reform agency regulation and end regulation of vast sectors of the economy. Any doubt that the consensus that Progressive Era regulation had failed ended when Ralph Nader testified before Kennedy’s subcommittee, denouncing regulations that kept prices high and choices low, and protected regulated industries.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">When airline deregulation passed the Senate in 1978, Kennedy declared: “The success of this legislation is the result of a clear consensus . . . that rigid federal economic regulations of the airlines tends to increase prices, foster inefficiency in operations and perpetuate Government control, bureaucracy and red tape. . . . This consensus has been built brick by brick in recent years by serious and careful nonpartisan examinations of . . . the nature of government and competition in the 1970s.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; margin-bottom: 12.75pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">The Senate passed airline deregulation 82-4 on Oct. 14, 1978, and Sen. Joe Biden voted for it. But Democratic deregulation was only beginning. As Kennedy noted: “The restrictive price and entry provisions of the Federal Aviation Act . . . were copied directly from the Interstate Commerce Act of the 1880s governing railroads. . . . We need to now look beyond the airlines and the corrective measures we are voting upon today and recognize the fact that . . . heavy regulation, as illustrated by the airline industry, is not the answer.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">On April 1, 1980, the Senate voted on the Staggers Rail Act to deregulate railroads. Again, Mr. Biden voted for it. In signing the Motor Carrier Act of 1980, which Mr. Biden also voted for, President Carter <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/motor-carrier-act-1980-statement-signing-s-2245-into-law" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">sounded the death knell</span></a> on Progressive Era regulation: “This historic legislation . . . will remove 45 years of excessive and inflationary Government restrictions and red tape. . . . No longer will trucks travel empty because of rules absurdly limiting the kinds of goods a truck may carry. No longer will trucks be forced to travel hundreds of miles out of their way for no reason or prohibited senselessly from stopping to pick up and deliver goods at points along their routes. The Motor Carrier Act of 1980 will bring the trucking industry into the free enterprise system, where it belongs.”<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">Far from hurting consumers, as progressive myth alleges, deregulation of the U.S. transportation system unleashed a wave of invention and innovation that reduced logistical transportation cost—the cost of moving goods as a percentage of gross domestic product—by an astonishing 50% over 40 years. Airline fares were <a href="https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/the-cost-of-air-travel-in-the-us-has-been-remarkably-stable-for-the-last-decade-and-17-cheaper-than-20-years-ago/" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">cut in half</span></a> on a per mile basis, while air cargo surged from 5.4% of all shipments to 14.5% by 2012, making air transit for people and packages a routine part of American life. “Our economy would be much smaller and per capita income significantly lower without these far-sighted changes,” according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FDX" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">FedEx</span></a> CEO Fred Smith.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;">In this Carter-Kennedy led reform, the duty of government was to protect the consumer from harm, not to protect the producer from competition. Without the productive energy released by deregulating airlines, trucking, railroads, energy and communications, the U.S. might not have found its competitive legs as its postwar dominance in manufacturing ended in the late 1970s. The benefits of deregulation to this day continue to make possible powerful innovations that remake the world. Amazon, FedEx and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/FB" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Facebook</span></a> are but a tiny fraction of a long list of progeny produced by lifting the heavy hand of Progressive Era regulation. We reimpose that regulation at our own peril.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 20.25pt; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"> <i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ; padding: 0cm;">Mr. Gramm is a former chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and a visiting scholar at American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Solon is a partner of US Policy Metrics.</span></i><span face=""Arial",sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 13pt; mso-fareast-language: EN-NZ;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-80966910772879651502021-07-15T17:44:00.001+12:002021-07-15T17:46:17.515+12:00Public Relations or Chicanery?<div class="WordSection1"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The Economist’s commentator on management in companies notes in a recent article (July 3<sup>rd</sup> 2021) the tendency to swap colourful glad handing and puffery with but the faintest resemblance to everyday reality which, he notes, likely has “zero impact” on the company’s profile for a more down to earth but less glitzy presentation all under the guise of PR or perhaps more plainly hubris. This at considerable cost to shareholders, staff and customers.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In fact at the meeting concerned the Chief Executive summed matters up, upon the PR man’s exit, with “Thank goodness he’s gone. Now I can tell you what’s really happening.” This condition is observable in the style of numerous popular governments at present. Just which entity is the infectious spreader of this particular variant of the virus?</span><o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p> </div> Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-41858557184009348622021-06-30T09:54:00.000+12:002021-06-30T09:54:04.247+12:00Deep Down We Know This.....<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: helvetica;">A critical point at present: </span></p><blockquote><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="background-color: white;">A widespread issue with behaviours
around energy, is that </span><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">individuals and institutions are more interested in
looking green or feeling green, than being green.</span><span style="background-color: white;"> In other words, we get a warm
feeling when we think we did something green or we can make others think we did
something green, regardless of whether it truly is green in the full lifecycle
of its existence. </span></span></blockquote><span style="font-family: helvetica;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #424242; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Lyn Alden Schwartzer </b>June 2021</span></span></span><p></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-9931470153331178242021-06-29T17:50:00.002+12:002021-06-29T17:51:07.861+12:00<p> <span style="font-family: helvetica;">Climate change in the Taieri</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGuBZ9SiFUdSdCmEE8AAVIJB9KW_csJmOhaDsv92_CKdxgqnf8uIZ-YxKde5s7wpa47_Y_3ilhCfEz3roaXadGMlrddoTJniME7__K98SLSoAA4Vs_-J6fh37lMgORHmORY9oUKPY_MNA/s2048/Tuesday+1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1536" data-original-width="2048" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGuBZ9SiFUdSdCmEE8AAVIJB9KW_csJmOhaDsv92_CKdxgqnf8uIZ-YxKde5s7wpa47_Y_3ilhCfEz3roaXadGMlrddoTJniME7__K98SLSoAA4Vs_-J6fh37lMgORHmORY9oUKPY_MNA/w486-h365/Tuesday+1.jpg" width="486" /></a></div><br /><p></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-69796457170117558262021-06-26T13:37:00.001+12:002021-06-26T13:38:20.624+12:00Serious Depth<p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: x-small;"> </span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Another measure of depth now apparent in NZ cricket: <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/445582/world-test-champions-go-head-to-head">World Test Champions go head-to-head | RNZ News</a></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-14171104147717784752021-06-21T06:12:00.004+12:002021-06-26T13:41:16.399+12:00More than helpful concept<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> <span style="background-color: white;"><span>"Be
less curious about people and more curious about ideas."</span></span></span></p>
<span><span style="font-family: helvetica;">—
Marie Curie </span></span>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-71596584522833211902021-06-19T15:07:00.000+12:002021-06-19T15:07:15.340+12:00Disputable Fact, Fantasy and Pure Fiction<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Currently, in the world of academia or is it literature, a hefty debate involves the "fleshing out" of the often skeletal or even documented but subject to interpretation tales of yore - history. The Economist of June 12, 2021 explains the debate well and covers arguments from "both sides".</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Its priceless description of the traditionalists reaction to current trends seen in "reconstruction" is worthy:</span></p><blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">Academic historians tend to be sniffy about all this. But though their work may be unsullied by ingratiating ornament, it is also , often, untouched by readers.</span></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">This is true, and understandable but, at present in particular, a great pity.</span></p><blockquote><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><br /><p></p></blockquote>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-2335922963165691532021-06-12T13:15:00.000+12:002021-06-12T13:15:22.198+12:00Depth Across Multiple Formats<p> <span style="font-family: helvetica;">Useful discussion here of changes and maturity in NZ cricket in a very different world from "not so long ago". <a href="https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/eng-vs-nz-2021-new-zealand-s-wholesale-changes-show-immense-strength-in-depth-1265930">Eng vs NZ 2021 - New Zealand's wholesale changes show immense strength in depth (espncricinfo.com)</a></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-51141419250305358112021-05-27T16:34:00.002+12:002021-05-27T16:34:14.675+12:00Judging Yesterday by Today Involves Mistaken Arrogance<p style="text-align: justify;"> <span style="font-family: verdana;">As part of the 200 year commemoration of Napoleon, <span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">President Emmanuel Macron recently addressed an audience of secondary school students amid the </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">architectural grandeur of the Institut de France </span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">He note in particular that we ought not to gloss over the complexities of a historical figure he described as “both eagle and ogre”. On the contrary, as well as explaining Napoleon’s soaring achievements, the President highlighted the appalling errors the “Little Corporal” had made, and their tragic cost in human life.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; white-space: pre-wrap;">This was the object lesson on the importance of truth in history. “You are not responsible for France’s past,” Macron told the students, “nor are you its guardians.”</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; white-space: pre-wrap;">“It comes to you as an inheritance, without a testament attached,” he went on to say, using a phrase every French student would recognise as a quotation from the poet and resistance hero, Rene Char. “You may choose to love it; and so too you may choose to criticise it.” </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: verdana; white-space: pre-wrap;">“But first of all you must learn it”: which means </span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">“facing it directly and as a whole”, imbued “with a love of knowledge” and “resisting the </span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">temptation to judge yesterday by today”. That is the foremost duty “a free people” owes its ancestors who secured the freedoms it enjoys — but it is also a free people’s greatest privilege, because it is only by “understanding its past” that it can freely “forge its future”.</span></p><div data-hook="rcv-block8" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="paragraph"></div><div class="XzvDs _208Ie _247b9 _2QAo- _25MYV eaHbJ _247b9 public-DraftStyleDefault-block-depth0 public-DraftStyleDefault-text-ltr" id="viewer-fioed" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; min-height: var(--ricos-custom-p-min-height,unset); outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><p></p><p><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: right; vertical-align: baseline;">Thanks to Henry Ergas</span><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: inherit;" /></span></span><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); box-sizing: inherit;" /></span></span><span class="vkIF2 public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: transparent; border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; direction: ltr; display: block; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p></p></div><div data-hook="rcv-block9" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="empty-line"></div><div data-hook="rcv-block10" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="paragraph"></div><div data-hook="rcv-block11" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="empty-line"></div><div data-hook="rcv-block12" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="paragraph"></div><div data-hook="rcv-block13" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;" type="empty-line"></div>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-77777989209690602872021-05-24T18:39:00.002+12:002021-05-24T18:39:25.048+12:00Better Ways to Approach Thinking<p> </p><p style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;">Tyler
Cowen on <a href="https://click.convertkit-mail4.com/68ur5dekrs8hgm6v5h7/qvh8h7h80xgm57hl/aHR0cHM6Ly9mcy5ibG9nL2tub3dsZWRnZS1wcm9qZWN0L3R5bGVyLWNvd2VuLw==" url-id="1385175577"><span style="color: #0875c1;">preparing
for the future</span></a>: </span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p style="background: rgb(250, 250, 250); line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">"I think the future belongs to
people who are what I call meta-rational. That is, people who realize their own
limitations. So not all the skills that you think are so valuable actually will
matter in the future. Don’t just feel good about yourself, but think
critically, what am I actually good at that will complement emerging sectors
and emerging technologies. The world of the future, even the present will be a
world of algorithms. ... People who think they can beat the algorithms will
make a lot more mistakes. ... So know when you should defer. It’s easier than
ever before to get advice from other people, including on podcasts, right? Or,
you know, go to Yelp. When can you trust the advice of others? Having good
judgment there is becoming more important than just being the smartest person
or having the highest IQ." </span></span><span style="font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 15.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-7493586798112430112021-05-19T21:08:00.001+12:002021-05-19T21:09:58.734+12:00Noise.... the book is here. Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein<p> </p><div class="yuRUbf" style="background-color: white; color: #202124; font-family: arial, sans-serif; line-height: 1.58;"><a data-ved="2ahUKEwjqv_L-rtXwAhU-zTgGHQLVBH4QFjADegQIAxAD" href="https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); color: #1a0dab; text-decoration-line: none;"><br /><h3 class="LC20lb DKV0Md" style="display: inline-block; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.3; margin: 0px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 0px 0px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment: Kahneman, Daniel ...</span></h3><div class="TbwUpd NJjxre" style="display: inline-block; font-size: small; left: 0px; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 1px; position: absolute; text-size-adjust: none; top: 0px;"><cite class="iUh30 Zu0yb qLRx3b tjvcx" style="color: #202124; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; line-height: 1.3; padding-top: 1px;">www.amazon.com<span class="dyjrff qzEoUe" style="color: #5f6368;"> › Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-K...</span></cite></div></a><div class="B6fmyf" style="font-size: small; height: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; visibility: hidden; white-space: nowrap;"><div class="TbwUpd" style="display: inline-block; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-top: 1px; text-size-adjust: none;"><cite class="iUh30 Zu0yb qLRx3b tjvcx" style="font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; line-height: 1.3; padding-top: 1px;"><span class="dyjrff qzEoUe" style="color: #5f6368;"></span></cite></div><div class="eFM0qc" style="display: inline-block; padding-bottom: 2px; padding-left: 2px; padding-top: 1px; visibility: visible;"><div class="action-menu" jscontroller="hiU8Ie" style="display: inline; margin: 1px 3px 0px; position: relative; user-select: none; vertical-align: middle;"><a aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="true" aria-label="Result options" class="GHDvEf" data-ved="2ahUKEwjqv_L-rtXwAhU-zTgGHQLVBH4Q7B0wA3oECAMQBg" href="https://www.google.com/search?q=kahneman+noise&ei=m9GkYJilDd2J4-EP-tC2sA4&oq=kahneman+noise&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyCAguEMQCEJMCMgUIABDEAjIFCAAQxAIyAggAMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOgcIABCwAxBDOgkIABCwAxAHEB46DQguELADEMgDEEMQkwI6CgguELADEMgDEEM6BwguEEMQkwI6BAguEEM6AgguSgUIOBIBMVC3IFiGLWDCN2gAcAB4AIAB_weIAYQlkgEPMC4xLjEuMC4xLjMuMS4xmAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdpesgBD8ABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz&ved=0ahUKEwjY3tr6rtXwAhXdxDgGHXqoDeYQ4dUDCA4&uact=5#" jsaction="PZcoEd;keydown:wU6FVd;keypress:uWmNaf" role="button" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); color: #1a0dab; display: inline-block; height: 12px; margin-top: 1px; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: none; width: 13px;"><span class="gTl8xb" style="border-color: rgb(112, 117, 122) transparent; border-style: solid; border-width: 5px 4px 0px; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin-left: 3px; margin-top: -3px; position: absolute; top: 7.33333px; width: 0px;"></span></a><ol class="action-menu-panel" data-ved="2ahUKEwjqv_L-rtXwAhU-zTgGHQLVBH4QqR8wA3oECAMQBw" jsaction="keydown:Xiq7wd;mouseover:pKPowd;mouseout:O9bKS" role="menu" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2); box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 2px 4px; font-size: 13px; left: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; position: absolute; top: 12px; transition: opacity 0.218s ease 0s; visibility: hidden; z-index: 3;" tabindex="-1"><li class="action-menu-item" role="menuitem" style="cursor: pointer; list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; user-select: none;"><a class="fl" href="https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Q_7EOwGy5zQJ:https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=nz" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); color: #3c4043; display: block; outline: 0px; padding: 7px 18px; text-decoration-line: none;"></a></li></ol></div></div></div></div><div class="IsZvec" style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.58; max-width: 48em;"><span class="aCOpRe" style="line-height: 1.58; overflow-wrap: break-word;">In <span style="color: #5f6368; font-weight: bold;">Noise</span>, Daniel <span style="color: #5f6368; font-weight: bold;">Kahneman</span>, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of <span style="color: #5f6368; font-weight: bold;">noise</span> in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection, there is judgment, there is <span style="color: #5f6368; font-weight: bold;">noise</span>.</span></div><div class="IsZvec" style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.58; max-width: 48em;"><span class="aCOpRe" style="line-height: 1.58; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span></div><div class="IsZvec" style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.58; max-width: 48em;"><span class="aCOpRe" style="line-height: 1.58; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Some decades ago Nobel winner Fischer Black wrote the Classic Paper "Noise". Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote much on noise - sometimes in the guise of random processes - throughout the early years of this century. Awareness of the confounding effects of noise are not new.</span></div><div class="IsZvec" style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.58; max-width: 48em;"><span class="aCOpRe" style="line-height: 1.58; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><br /></span></div><div class="IsZvec" style="background-color: white; color: #4d5156; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.58; max-width: 48em;"><span class="aCOpRe" style="line-height: 1.58; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Bringing these minds (Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein) together on the topic likely is new. A great difficulty with handling noise is producing strong frameworks to make the relevant ideas cohere, develop structures to analyse the phenomenon within and to figure ways to ask the "right" questions about noise. Currently, these three are likely the best shot on the planet at doing just that.</span></div>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6847171504304234964.post-10028852643492724912021-05-19T14:21:00.000+12:002021-05-19T14:21:03.202+12:00Simple Posting Text<p> The story continues unabated and with promise...</p>Eye2theLongRunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09366285345157934788noreply@blogger.com0